Hey, if you are anywhere along the Andhra Pradesh coastline, listen up because things are about to get rough. The weather folks have been tracking this intense system in the Bay of Bengal, and it has now beefed up into a severe cyclonic storm named Montha. It is heading straight for the shore between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam, right around Kakinada, and the landfall is expected this evening or night. Winds could hit a steady 90 to 100 kilometres per hour, with gusts pushing 110. That is no joke for anyone near the coast.

Where Exactly is Montha Right Now?

As of early this morning, the centre of the storm was sitting about 160 kilometres southeast of Machilipatnam, 240 kilometres from Kakinada, and a bit over 300 kilometres southwest of Visakhapatnam. It has been crawling north-northwest at around 12 to 15 kilometres per hour, picking strength along the way. The pronunciation, by the way, is Mon-Tha, just in case you are chatting about it with neighbours.

Another System Brewing in the Arabian Sea

While Montha grabs the headlines, there is a depression spinning over the east-central Arabian Sea. It is currently around 500 kilometres southwest of Veraval in Gujarat and about 580 kilometres from Mumbai. This one is moving northeast slowly and should stay over the open sea for the next day and a half at least. No immediate land threat, but it is adding moisture that will fuel rain in western parts.

What Happened in the Last 24 Hours?

The past day has already seen some serious downpours. Parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam recorded extreme rainfall at isolated spots, with some areas getting more than 21 centimetres. Places like Anandpuram near Visakhapatnam saw 25 centimetres, while the airport area there got 19. Further south in Nellore and up north in Srikakulam, several stations crossed the 7-centimetre mark. Even Yanam felt the brunt.

Away from the coast, east Rajasthan, Gujarat, and west Madhya Pradesh had heavy to very heavy showers between 7 and 20 centimetres in pockets. Rayalaseema, Kerala, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu all reported heavy rain of 7 to 11 centimetres here and there. Saurashtra and Kutch stood out with Sutrapada hitting 20 centimetres and Veraval 13.

Rain Forecast for the Next Few Days

Today, the 28th, expect isolated extremely heavy falls over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, and south Chhattisgarh. Odisha joins the list today and tomorrow. Tomorrow, the 29th, coastal Andhra, Rayalaseema, and Telangana could see very heavy rain at isolated places, along with Tamil Nadu today.

Moving to central India, West Madhya Pradesh might get heavy showers through the 30th, while east Madhya Pradesh continues till the 31st. Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh have chances till the 30th. Further east, Gangetic West Bengal till the 31st, Jharkhand from the 29th to 31st, Bihar the same period, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on the 30th and 1st November. Very heavy pockets possible in Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh on the 29th, east Madhya Pradesh on the 30th, Bihar on the 30th and 31st, and the northeast hills on the 31st.

West India sees Konkan, Goa, Marathwada today and tomorrow, Madhya Maharashtra tomorrow, Gujarat through the 31st, with Saurashtra and Kutch likely very heavy till the 31st. Northeast India stays mostly dry until the 30th, then Arunachal, Assam, Meghalaya from the 30th to 2nd November, the rest of the region from the 31st, with very heavy possible in Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal on the 31st and 1st November.

Northwest India has east Rajasthan today, east Uttar Pradesh on the 30th and 31st with very heavy possible on the 30th.

Thunderstorms and Gusty Winds Everywhere

Almost the entire south peninsula can expect thunderstorms with lightning and gusts of 30 to 50 kilometres per hour today and tomorrow in Kerala, coastal and north interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep. Telangana faces the same through 1st November, Tamil Nadu today, Rayalaseema today and tomorrow, coastal Andhra through the 30th.

Central India gets thunderstorms with 30 to 40 kilometre gusts over the next five days in Madhya Pradesh, gusts up to 40 to 50 in Vidarbha today and tomorrow, Andaman and Nicobar today. Odisha faces the same for five days. Chhattisgarh could see thundersqualls of 60 to 70 today, easing to 50 to 60 tomorrow.

West India has 30 to 40 kilometre gusts over the next five days. Northeast India from the 30th to 1st November. Northwest has east Rajasthan today and the 30th, west Uttar Pradesh the 30th, east Uttar Pradesh the 30th and 31st.

Wind and Sea Warnings

Over the west-central Bay of Bengal, gale winds of 90 to 100 gusting 110 continue till tonight. Northwest Bay sees squally winds 30 to 40 gusting 50 now, rising to 60 to 70 gusting 80 from this evening till tomorrow morning, then easing.

Along Andhra and Yanam coasts, gales 60 to 70 gusting 80 now, ramping to 90 to 100 gusting 110 from evening till early tomorrow, then dropping. Odisha coast sees squally 45 to 55 gusting 65 now, becoming gales 60 to 70 gusting 80 evening to early tomorrow. Tamil Nadu and Puducherry squally easing gradually. West Bengal coast squally 35 to 45 gusting 55 today and tomorrow.

Sea conditions are high to very high in west-central Bay, very high till early tomorrow, then improving. Rough to very rough along Andhra, worsening to high to very high this evening to early tomorrow. Odisha rough to very high till early tomorrow.

Storm Surge and Fishermen Alert

A storm surge of about one metre above tide could flood low areas in coastal Andhra and Yanam around landfall time. Fishermen, stay out of southwest and central Bay, along Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Yanam, Odisha till tomorrow, West Bengal today and tomorrow. If you are at sea, get back now.

Expected Damage in Andhra and South Odisha

In districts like Tirupati, Nellore, Krishna, Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Srikakulam, and south Odisha areas such as Ganjam, Gajapati: thatched homes could lose roofs, power lines snap, roads flood, trees uproot, crops like paddy, banana, papaya suffer. Low areas flood, visibility drops, traffic jams, possible landslides, embankment damage, coastal erosion.

Stop fishing completely. Move coastal hut residents inland. Stay indoors. No motor boats. Watch weather, be ready to evacuate. Avoid trees during lightning, unplug appliances, stay from water bodies.

Arabian Sea Side Precautions

In Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Gujarat: tree branches break, crops damage, minor hut and road issues, flash floods, landslides, visibility low. Same safety tips: watch weather, safe shelter, avoid trees, unplug, regulate tourism and transport.

Farmers, Take Note

In Andhra, delay groundnut harvest, drain rice, maize, pulses, cotton fields. Tamil Nadu: harvest rice, groundnut only in dry weather, drain sugarcane, cotton. Kerala: harvest rice now, ensure drainage for veggies, banana. Similar advice across Telangana, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat: harvest only in fair weather, drain fields, postpone rabi sowing. Protect livestock in sheds, secure fodder, prevent fish escape from ponds.

Support plants against wind, cover harvested crops. Flash flood risk moderate to high in parts of coastal Andhra districts like Guntur, Krishna, Godavari, Prakasam, Nellore, Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram; Telangana Bhadradri Kothagudem, Khammam; Odisha Koraput, Rayagada and others. Low risk in Saurashtra Gir Somnath, Junagadh.

Delhi stays cloudy today with mist evening, temps 27 to 29 max. Tomorrow partly cloudy, smog morning, 29 to 31. Similar through 31st, no big rain but haze and light winds.

Stay safe, keep updated, help neighbours. This one is serious but we have seen worse and come through.