Government of India
Earth System Science Organization
Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
Press Release: Dated: 09th October 2025
Subject: Current Weather Status and Extended Range Forecast for the next two weeks (09th to 22nd October 2025)
1. Salient Observed Features for the week ending 08th October 2025:
- Formation of Season’s 1st Severe Cyclonic Storm “Shakhti” over northeast Arabian Sea (3rd – 6th October): Last week’s Depression over northeast Arabian Sea moved south-southwestwards and lay centered at 0830 hours IST of 02nd October over the same region near latitude 20.8°N and longitude 67.9°E. Moving nearly westwards, it intensified into a Deep Depression and lay centered at 2330 hrs IST of 02nd October over the same region near latitude 20.8°N and longitude 67.7°E. It further moved northwestwards, intensified into a Cyclonic Storm “Shakhti” [Pronunciation: Shakhti]” and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of 3rd October over northeast Arabian Sea near latitude 21.7°N and longitude 66.8°E. It moved west-southwestwards, further intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of 4th October over the same region near latitude 22.0°N and longitude 65.0°E. Moving west-southwestwards, it weakened into a Cyclonic Storm at 0530 hrs IST of 6th October over westcentral & adjoining northwest Arabian Sea, near latitude 19.6°N and longitude 60.4°E. It weakened into a Deep Depression at 2330 hrs IST of 6th October over the same region, near latitude 19.5°N and longitude 60.1°E, and further weakened into a Depression at 0830 hrs IST of 7th October over the same region of westcentral and adjoining northwest Arabian Sea, near latitude 19.0°N and longitude 60.5°E. It weakened into a Well-Marked Low Pressure Area at 1730 IST of 7th October over westcentral Arabian Sea and persisted over the same region on 8th October. This system did not cause any major impact over mainland of India.
- Last week’s Deep Depression over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards, lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of 02nd October over the same region near latitude 18.0°N and longitude 85.6°E. Moving north-northwestwards, it crossed Odisha coast close to Gopalpur around 1700 hours IST as a Deep Depression and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of 02nd October 2025 over south coastal Odisha near latitude 19.4°N and longitude 84.8°E, close to Gopalpur. Gopalpur reported maximum wind speed of 73 kmph in gustiness and 3 minute average maximum sustained wind speed was 48 kmph during evening of 02nd October. It moved north-northwestwards, weakened into a Depression and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of 3rd October over interior Odisha near latitude 20.2°N and longitude 84.1°E. Moving nearly northwards, it weakened into a Well-Marked Low Pressure Area at 1730 hrs IST of 3rd October and lay over north Chhattisgarh and adjoining areas of north interior Odisha & Jharkhand. Then, it moved north-northeastwards and lay as a Low Pressure Area over north Bihar & neighbourhood at 0530 hrs IST of 5th October and became less marked at 0830 hrs IST of the same day.
It caused extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places over Jharkhand on 2nd October, Odisha on 3rd October, Exceptionally heavy rainfall recorded at isolated places over Bihar on 4th & 5th October, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 5th October leading to flash floods in Bihar and landslides in Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim. It also caused extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya on 5th October. - Two Western Disturbances (WDs; 3 – 5 October & 6 – 8 October) moved across northwest India during the week. It caused heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Rajasthan during 4th – 7th October, Himachal Pradesh on 8th October; and heavy rainfall over Jammu-Kashmir, Haryana on 7th October, Punjab on 8th October, Uttar Pradesh on 7th & 8th October. It also caused snowfall in higher reaches of northwest Himalayas and isolated hailstorm activity over Jammu on 5th October, West Rajasthan on 6th October; West Uttar Pradesh on 7th October.
- Very heavy rainfall was recorded at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya on 2nd & 6th October, East Uttar Pradesh on 2nd & 4th October, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on 2nd, 3rd & 6th October, Bihar on 2nd October, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal on during 4th – 6th October, East Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand on 4th October, Marathawada on 5th & 6th October, Kerala & Mahe on 5th October, West Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Odisha on 7th October, Himachal Pradesh on 8th October.
- Heavy rainfall was recorded at isolated places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Coastal Karnataka on 2nd October, Gangetic West Bengal on 2nd – 6th October, Odisha on 2nd, 4th, 6th & 8th October, East Madhya Pradesh on 2nd & 7th October, Saurashtra & Kutch on 2nd, 3rd & 8th October, Arunachal Pradesh during 3rd – 5th October, Chhattisgarh, Assam & Meghalaya on 3rd & 4th October, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 3rd October, Jharkhand on 3rd, 6th & 7th October, Konkan & Goa on 3rd October, East Rajasthan during 4th – 7th October, West Rajasthan on 4th & 6th October, West Madhya Pradesh on 4th & 6th October, Rayalaseema during 4th – 7th October, North Interior Karnataka during 5th – 7th October, Telangana on 5th, 7th & 8th October, South Interior Karnataka on 6th October, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on 7th & 8th October, Jammu-Kashmir, Haryana, Vidarbha, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal on 7th October, Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh on 8th October.
- No further Withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon during the week due to the above weather systems: The line of withdrawal of southwest monsoon continued to pass through 20°N/69°E, Veraval, Bharuch, Ujjain, Jhansi, Shahjahanpur and 30°N/81°E during the week.
- Weekly Average Maximum temperature was below normal by 2-4ºC over most parts of the country except south peninsular India during the week. Weekly Average Minimum temperature was above normal by 1-3ºC during first half of the week and below normal by 2-4ºC during second half of the week over parts of north and northwest India and nearly normal over remaining parts of the country during the week.
- Temperature Scenario: The lowest minimum temperature of 10.2oC had been recorded at Una (Himachal Pradesh) on 08th October, 2025 and the highest maximum temperature of 39.5oC had been recorded at Palayamkottai (Tamil Nadu) on 02nd October, 2025 over the plains of the country during the week.
- Analysis of weekly overall rainfall distribution during the week-ending on 08th October and the Post-Monsoon Season’s Rainfall Scenario (01.10.2025 to 08.10.2025): The country as a whole, the weekly cumulative All India Rainfall (ending on 08th October) in % departure from its long period average (LPA) is 64%. All India Seasonal cumulative rainfall % departure during this year’s Post-Monsoon Season Rainfall (01.10.2025 to 08.10.2025) is 60%. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given in Table 1, and Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall for the week and season are given in Annexure I & II, respectively.
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Table 1: Rainfall status (Week and season)
| Region | Week 02.10.2025 TO 08.10.2025 |
Season 01.10.2025 TO 08.10.2025 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual (mm) | Normal (mm) | Departure (%) | Actual (mm) | Normal (mm) | Departure (%) | |
| EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA | 76.2 | 47.2 | +61% | 86.4 | 52.9 | +63% |
| NORTHWEST INDIA | 37.8 | 6.9 | +448% | 42.9 | 7.8 | +450% |
| CENTRAL INDIA | 34.3 | 22.0 | +56% | 37.6 | 25.2 | +49% |
| SOUTH PENINSULA | 26.9 | 39.3 | -32% | 28.3 | 45.7 | -38% |
| THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE | 40.6 | 24.8 | +64% | 45.2 | 28.3 | +60% |
2. Large-scale features:
- Currently, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), along with other climate models, indicate an increased likelihood of La Niña conditions developing during the post-monsoon season.
- At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. Forecasts from the MMCFS and other climate models indicate that weak negative IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the start of the post-monsoon season, persisting for a brief period.
- MJO is currently in phase 1 with an amplitude of greater than 1. It is likely to remain in phase 1 with amplitude greater than 1, during the entire period of week 1. At the start of Week 2, it is likely to migrate to phase 2, with amplitude remaining greater than 1, and will remain in phase 2 for the entire duration of week 2 with amplitude remaining greater than 1.
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3. Forecast for the next two weeks
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (09 to 15 October, 2025) and Week 2 (16 to 22 October, 2025)
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (09 to 15 October, 2025):
Weather systems and withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon:
- The line of withdrawal of southwest monsoon continues to pass through 20°N/ 69°E, Veraval, Bharuch, Ujjain, Jhansi, Shahjahanpur and 30°N/81°E. (Annexure II).
- Conditions are favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from remaining parts of Gujarat; some more parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Maharashtra during next 24 hours and from some parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha during subsequent 2-3 days.
Weather Systems, Forecast and Warnings:
- A well-marked low pressure (Remnant of Cyclonic Storm “Shakhti” [Pronunciation: Shakhti]) lay over westcentral Arabian Sea at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 9th October, 2025. The associated cyclonic circulation extended upto 5.8 km above mean sea level. It is likely to continue to move east-southeastwards over westcentral Arabian Sea and weaken further into a low-pressure area during next 24hours.
- An upper air cyclonic circulation over south Bangladesh & neighbourhood in lower & middle tropospheric level.
- A trough runs from south Odisha to Comorin area in lower tropospheric level.
- An upper air cyclonic circulation over Comorin area & neighbourhood in lower tropospheric level.
- An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over southeast Arabian Sea & adjoining north Kerala in lower tropospheric level.
- An upper air cyclonic circulation over central Assam & neighbourhood in lower tropospheric level.
- A Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation lay over northwest Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood between 1.5 & 4.5 km above mean sea level.
Under the influence of these systems, the following weather is likely:
South Peninsular India:
- Light to moderate rain/thunderstorm at some/ isolated places with isolated heavy rainfall likely over Tamil Nadu and Kerala & Mahe during 09th -14th; Coastal Karnataka 09th & 10th; South Interior Karnataka during 09th – 13th: Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam during 09th – 12th and Rayalaseema during 09th -11th October with very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka on 09th October.
- Strong surface winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on 09th October.
East India:
- Light to moderate rain/thunderstorm at some/ isolated places with isolated heavy rainfall likely over Odisha during 09th– 12thOctober.
Northeast India:
- Light/moderate rain/thunderstorm at some/isolated places with isolated heavy rainfall likely over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on 09th & 10th October.
Precipitation for week 2 (16 to 22 October, 2025):
- Due to easterly & northeasterly winds over southern peninsular India, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall likely over most parts of south Peninsular India mainly during 1st half of the week.
- Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over south Peninsular India; below normal over northwest, east & northeast India and most parts of central India during the week.
- Conditions are likely to become favourable for further withdrawal of remaining parts of the country during the 1st half of the week. Simultaneously with the setting in of easterly & northeasterly winds over southern peninsular India, south & adjoining central Bay of Bengal, the Northeast Monsoon rainfall activity is likely to commence over south east peninsular region during the same period.
Temperature forecast for Week 1 (09 to 15 October, 2025) and Week 2 (16 to 22 October, 2025)
Temperature forecast for Week 1 (09 to 15 October, 2025):
- Minimum Temperature Departures (as on 09-10-2025): markedly above normal(> 5.1°C) at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh. appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at isolated places over West Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal. above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at few places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura; at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, West Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kutch, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, Rayalaseema and North Interior Karnataka. The lowest minimum temperature of 11.2°C is reported at UNA (HIMACHAL PRADESH) over the Plains of India.
- Overall, minimum temperatures are likely to be near normal or below normal by 1-3°C over most parts of the country during the week.
Temperature forecast for Week 2 (16 to 22 October, 2025):
- Minimum temperatures are likely to be near normal or slightly below normal over most parts of the country except south Peninsular India, where these are likely to be above normal by about 2°C during the week.
Meta Description:
Get the latest weather status and extended range forecast from the India Meteorological Department for October 9-22, 2025. This report covers the formation of Cyclone Shakhti, rainfall distribution, monsoon withdrawal, and temperature predictions across India.