Weather Systems, Forecast, and Warnings issued by India Meteorological Department – New Delhi via press release number 4216 dated 13 August 2025. The details are as under :
Monsoon Trough and Low Pressure Systems
The western end of the monsoon trough at mean sea level runs north of its normal position, while the eastern end runs south of its normal position to the center of the low pressure area over Westcentral and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal off North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coasts. Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over Westcentral Bay of Bengal and neighborhood, a low pressure area has formed over the same region at 0530 hrs IST on 13th August 2025 and persists at 0830 hrs IST. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 7.6 km above mean sea level, tilting southwards with height. This low pressure area is likely to move west-northwestwards, becoming well-marked within the next 24 hours, and is expected to move across North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha during the next 48 hours.
Other Atmospheric Systems
An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Kutch and neighborhood in lower tropospheric levels. An east-west trough runs from the central parts of the Bay of Bengal to the Northeast Arabian Sea adjoining Kutch in lower and middle tropospheric levels, tilting southward with height. Additional upper air cyclonic circulations are present over Northeast Assam, Northwest Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Haryana, and East Uttar Pradesh in lower tropospheric levels. A trough extends from the upper air cyclonic circulation over East Uttar Pradesh to the low pressure area over Westcentral and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal off North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coasts in lower tropospheric levels.
Regional Weather Forecast
Northwest India
Extremely heavy rainfall is very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand on 13th August. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Jammu-Kashmir during 13th–18th; Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during 13th–19th; Punjab during 14th–16th; Haryana, Chandigarh, and West Uttar Pradesh during 13th–16th; East Uttar Pradesh on 14th; and East Rajasthan during 14th–18th August. Very heavy rainfall is anticipated over Jammu-Kashmir on 14th and 15th; Himachal Pradesh on 13th and 14th; Uttarakhand during 13th–17th; West Uttar Pradesh during 13th–15th; and East Uttar Pradesh on 13th August. Light to moderate rainfall at most or many places, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, is likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and Uttarakhand during the next 7 days.
Northeast India
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely to continue over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya during 13th–16th; and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura during 13th–17th August, with very heavy rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh on 13th; and Assam and Meghalaya on 13th and 16th August. Light to moderate rainfall at many places, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, is likely during the next 4 days.
South Peninsular India
Extremely heavy rainfall is very likely at isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on 13th; and Telangana on 13th and 14th August. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Coastal Karnataka and North Interior Karnataka during 13th–19th; South Interior Karnataka during 13th–17th; Rayalaseema on 14th; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, and Telangana during 13th–19th; Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal on 13th; and Kerala during 13th–15th August. Isolated very heavy rainfall is anticipated over Rayalaseema on 13th; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on 14th; Telangana during 15th–17th; and Coastal Karnataka on 18th and 19th August. Strong surface winds (speed reaching 40–50 kmph) are very likely over South Peninsular India during the next 2 days. Light to moderate rainfall at most or many places, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, is likely over Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, and Telangana during the next 5 days.
East and Central India
Extremely heavy rainfall is very likely at isolated places over Bihar on 13th August. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh during 13th–19th; Gangetic West Bengal on 13th; Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on 14th and during 17th–19th; Bihar on 14th and 15th; and Odisha during 13th–17th August. Isolated very heavy rainfall is anticipated over West Madhya Pradesh on 13th, 15th, and 16th; East Madhya Pradesh and Odisha on 13th and 14th; Vidarbha on 13th, 14th, 17th, and 18th; Chhattisgarh during 13th–17th; and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on 13th August. Light to moderate rainfall at most or many places, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, is likely over the region during the next 7 days.
West India
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Madhya Maharashtra on 13th; Konkan and Goa during 13th–15th; Marathwada on 14th, 15th, and 18th; Gujarat Region during 14th–19th; and Saurashtra and Kutch during 17th–19th August. Isolated very heavy rainfall is anticipated over Marathwada on 13th; and Konkan and Goa, and ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra during 16th–19th August. Light to moderate rainfall at many or some places is very likely over the region during the next 5 days.