1. Salient Observed Features for the week ending 01st October 2025:
- Further Withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon: The southwest monsoon further withdrew from some more parts of Gujarat, entire Rajasthan, some more parts of Madhya Pradesh & Uttar Pradesh and entire Western Himalayan Region on 26th September 2025.
- Seasonal Monsoon Rainfall: Rainfall over the country as a whole during the 2025 southwest monsoon season was 108% of its LPA.
- Northwest India – 127%
- Central India – 115%
- South Peninsula – 110%
- Northeast India – 80%
- Formation of a Depression: A Depression formed over northwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal off South Odisha – North Andhra Pradesh coasts during 26th–28th September.
- Formation of a Deep Depression: A Deep Depression formed over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal on 01st October 2025.
- Rainfall Highlights: Extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places over Konkan & Goa, Gujarat Region, Saurashtra & Kutch on 29th September. Very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Odisha, Jharkhand, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Madhya Maharashtra, and other regions on various dates.
- Temperature Scenario:
- Lowest minimum: 17.0°C at Jeur (Maharashtra) on 17th September.
- Highest maximum: 39.8°C at Jaisalmer (Rajasthan) on 28th September.
- Rainfall Analysis: All India cumulative rainfall departure during 2025 monsoon season was +8%. (Details in Table 1 below)
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Table 1: Rainfall status (Week and Season)
| Region | Week (25.09.2025 to 01.10.2025) | Season (01.06.2025 to 30.09.2025) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual (mm) | Normal (mm) | Departure (%) | Actual (mm) | Normal (mm) | Departure (%) | |
| East & Northeast India | 26.3 | 55.7 | -53% | 1089.9 | 1367.3 | -20% |
| Northwest India | 8.2 | 11.3 | -28% | 747.9 | 587.6 | +27% |
| Central India | 63.0 | 26.0 | +142% | 1125.3 | 978.0 | +15% |
| South Peninsula | 46.8 | 39.6 | +18% | 787.4 | 716.2 | +10% |
| The Country as a Whole | 37.1 | 28.9 | +28% | 937.2 | 868.6 | +8% |
2. Large-scale features:
- ENSO: Neutral conditions currently prevail, likely to persist through monsoon season. Increased chance of La Niña developing in post-monsoon.
- IOD: Neutral conditions, weak negative IOD likely towards end of monsoon.
- MJO: Currently in phase 2 with amplitude >1. Expected transitions into phases 1 and 8 during weeks 1 and 2.
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3. Forecast for the next two weeks
Week 1 (02 – 08 October 2025):
- Deep Depression over Bay of Bengal likely to cross Odisha & adjoining Andhra Pradesh coasts by 2nd October night.
- Depression over northeast Arabian Sea likely to move southwestwards towards NW Arabian Sea.
- Fresh Western Disturbance likely to affect NW India from 04th October with heavy to very heavy rain and hailstorms over J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and UP during 05–07 October (peak on 6th).
- Heavy to Extremely Heavy Rainfall:
- Odisha, Chhattisgarh, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh – 02nd October.
- Bihar – 03rd & 04th October.
- East Uttar Pradesh – 04th October.
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Week 2 (09 – 15 October 2025):
- Likely widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy over east & northeast India and Chhattisgarh (mainly first half of week).
- Rainfall above normal over east & northeast India; below normal over rest of India.
- Conditions favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, parts of Maharashtra and east India.
Temperature Forecast:
- Week 1: Maximum temperatures near/below normal over most of India, except above normal in parts of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Delhi.
- Week 2: Maximum temperatures near/below normal over most of India, but above normal by 2–3°C in Western Himalayan Region.
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For Annexures Please download from link provided below
https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/marquee_data/ERF%2002.10.25.pdf